,,A good chess player thinks at least 5 moves ahead. A great chess player uses his intuition and thinks only one. The right one.”
(Note : What we’re going to underline today isn’t an attack on predictions and predictors, but simply emphasize their fragility and risks due to the volatile and fragmented nature of the mobile landscape).
__With so many innovations in the past few years, many aspects of the mobile future are positively uncertain. Mobile phones at the turn of the 21st century set the stage and momentum for the gigantic mass adoptions of smart devices and tablets. In the wake of this bustling tech-age market, many have made predictions of the new dawns of mobile tech and its outcomes.
We’re going to take a look at why predictions are risky. The first and main reason is simple :
The very nature of mobile technology implies innovation and innovation means new rules, challenging old laws and unpredictable moves on the board.
It’s quite tempting to fall into the pleasant feeling of trying to sense what’s going to happen. And when you’re right, you’re king of the world. It’s an easy yet dangerous trend. Especially when possible investors enter the trough of disillusionment and are left hanging.
Let’s select a few predictions that came true and predictions that didn’t quite hit the mark.
Ín 2009 there were Predictions about Windows Phone set to reach no.2 in the mobile world by 2012. Well that didn’t work out as expected. The iPhone and Android design and constant improvements and updates gobbled up marketshare over the past 3 years. Coupled with the accessibility of Apple’s App store and Google’s Play Store, it’s easily understood why these two players still vie for domination and get a lot of attention from customers and mobile users.
Another prediction was that Apple developers would migrate to Android. Well, again, not quite there. In March 2012, Flurry crunched data from developers using its tracking tools in their apps, and claimed that given the same number of users per platform, a developer who got $1 on the iTunes App Store would get $0.23 from Google Play. Despite heavy competition and virtues on both parts, developers still prefer Apple.
And just to pick (a little) on the kid who showed so much promise but he’s been oversleeping in bed for the last few years : HTML5. There were a lot of predictions over the past 3 years, that it would solve the native vs. web apps situation. But HTML5 isn’t ready to face the world with a good night’s sleep. It’s simply not done yet. HTML5 still likes his blanky.
Despite some arrows that didn’t strike true, there were predictions that were quite accurate. A few examples : increased adoption of tablets, improvements in augmented reality apps, a larger playing field for companies by which they can expand their business through mobile applications and so on.
Now we move on to the second reason why you should take predictions in mobile with a grain of salt.
The digital / social media snowball effect.
There is no doubt by now how social media and the adoption of smart devices are tied together like glue. As more and more people become connected through social networks, new developments in technology become quickly known. This creates customer expectations and fiercer battles from large companies and developers. Everybody strives to put out new, faster, better, superior products on the market and they succeed. Especially through mobile apps.
As such, the more competition and the better the mobile tech = even faster development of new mobile tech. This leads to that beautiful term called disruptors.
At any point in time, the market can take a good 180 spin for a while because of an upstart innovation. Take for example Samsung. They’re developing bendable smartphones, you can sit on them or throw them around and they won’t break. Would it be improbable that an upstart innovator could develop a smartphone that extends into a tablet or it can fold into a watch? Maybe not tomorrow but let’s face it, It’s a brave new world. Anything goes.
Another, yet slightly less significant reason would be projected numbers. The mobile market is becoming too dynamic to make forecasts such as 2009-2020.
In chess we have 32 pieces and 64 squares. The number of possible permutations is somewhere around a few billion. And that’s just chess, with enclosed rules. It’s nearly impossible to predict the result of a chess game. A few logical moves yes. But 10 moves in advance? And add to that game the fact that there’s more players and rules on the board every year. From Amazon’s Kindle, HTC, new wi-fi, better mobile chips, apps that offer discounts, you name it. We’ll risk our own prediction here. The permutations and margin of error for the mobile market is significantly higher than a few billion.
Remember 2011? Most predictions were that the mobile app revenue would be at $15bn. But according to ABI Research the revenue was at $8,5bn at the end of 2011. In 2010, predictions said mobile app revenues would reach $17,5bn by the end of 2012. In 2012, mobile app revenues were somewhere at $30bn and change. We can notice that the numbers are quite off from predictions and reality. Why?
Among many other things, the mobile app, mobile tech and mobile market is a self (re) defining and self attacking organism. Like nature, it evolves through conflict. Because of that, disruption and change comes at a very high pace and (precise) predictions are nearly impossible.
Will the mobile market grow? Yes. Will the app market grow? Yes. Will smart device adoption increase? Ok, no more repeating myself. But these aren’t necessarily predictions rather the logical consequence of a lot of simple factors. Such as lowered costs, higher quality, better wi-fi, faster speeds, higher customer visibility, the new status quo of tech and so on.
Now we want to reiterate this simple fact. Predictions are risky. If you’re looking for what’s ahead of the curve, it might give you an idea of what to expect. But you should always take it with a grain of salt.
As Michael Mace stated in Fearless predictions for 2011 (which is a very good read), predictions fall into four categories of uselessness: Fish in the Barrel, Shots in the Dark, Wish-Fulfillment, and Self-Service. His article is is quite insightful and we encourage you to read it.
Basically where we wanted to go with the idea of mobile predictions is simple. Filter them , then take a step back and put things into perspective and think about a healthy dose of skepticism. Go to a park , sit on the edge of the lake and think carefully if you want to risk your business / marketing strategy on what ,,might” happen in a chess game with …… just a few billions of permutations based on ,,maybe”. The move we encourage you to take into consideration is: no matter how seductive predictions with numbers and how often you come across them, use your own intuition.
What do you think about the feasibility of predictions in the mobile industry and mobile apps world? What’s their lifespan? Do you think they’re risky or just an interesting read and hype at the end and the beginning of each year?
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